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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, October 4, 2006

Oil prices lowest since February

By Barbara Hagenbaugh
USA Today

WASHINGTON — Oil prices plunged at the fastest rate in more than a year yesterday and fell below $60 a barrel for the first time in nearly eight months as high inventories and expectations for reduced demand weighed on prices.

A number of energy analysts, such as those at Wachovia, First Enercast Financial and BNP Paribas Commodity Futures, say prices will likely head lower in the days and weeks ahead, absent a major change in the oil landscape.

The price of a barrel of crude oil trading for future delivery fell $2.35, or 3.9 percent, to $58.68. That was the lowest price since mid-February and marked the steepest one-day percentage decline in prices since August 2005.

Oil prices have fallen 24 percent since peaking at $77.03 in July. Prices are poised to fall further, Wachovia economist Jason Schenker says.

"The market is under pressure from both the supply and demand side," he says.

What's happening:

  • Supply. U.S. oil inventories are up more than 6 percent from this time a year ago and are far above the historical average for this time of year, according to the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. Such large supplies are the main reason for the oil price decline, BNP Paribas Commodity Futures senior energy analyst Thomas Bentz says.

    "Right now, it looks like we're going to continue to slide," he says.

  • Demand. Demand normally declines in the fall after the end of the busy summer driving season and before the winter, when heating oil demand rises. But expectations are growing that demand will soften more than usual in the months ahead, in large part because of a broad decline in economic activity around the globe.

  • Weather. Forecasts are suggesting this may be a mild winter, pointing to reduced demand for heating oil and for oil to power electricity to heat homes, says Ben Smith, president of First Enercast Financial, an energy consulting firm that focuses on weather. Such expectations are also reducing expectations for oil demand this winter.